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20 Ocak 2011 Perşembe

(Why and How) China is (macro-economically) the unbeatable leader of the world.



The GDP growth of China is well above of an average of 10% since they switched to open economy by their legendary leader Deng in 1992. There is also no sign of a slow down.
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_kd_zg&idi...m=country%3ACHN&dl=en&hl=en&q=gdp+growth+china

GDP of China has exceed 8.5 trillion usd if not 9, as of 2010 end.
GDP of US is around 14.5 trillion USD.
http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:USA&dl=en&hl=en&q=us+gdp#met=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:USA

This is (purchasing power) adjusted figures, not nominal. Nominal GDP, like nominal growth worths nothing and not usable. Because, especially in fixed exchange rate policies (like China) where government can decide the value of the currency but not the market, nominal value is not a measure. A small island economy could be the biggest economy of the world by simply announcing local currency trades at 1000s of USD. Suddenly, every transaction with local currency multiplied by 1000s of USD would magnify an enormous economic size or namely GDP. However, in reality the value of the total products bought and sold in that country (the definition of GDP) would not have been changed. Therefore, nominal figures are just for official purposes and do not have an economical meaning. By the way, altough the magtitude is exaggerated, this economic model is frequently seen in the world, resulting the collapse of the economy.

China has a fixed exchange rate as well but consciously undervalues YUAN against USD and Euro to increase current account (trade) and budget surplus at the expense of US and Europe. An undervalued YUAN means cheaper Chinese imports for US and European consumers. Therefore, higher demand for Chinese products. Even more production and GDP growth for China. However, bigger current account (export-imports) deficit for the importer countries to finance.

As a result of these policy, China has ended up with 2 trillion USD reserves accumulated from trade surpluss and US has 13.5 trillion usd debt to finance its trade deficit. which is really frightening! and worsens the initial situation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

Lets forget about the debts and surplusses. Only focus on the size of the economy. There is the rule of 72. It gives the number of the years to double of an economy when you divide 72 into the percentage of growth which is 10 for china. So every 72/10=7 years Chinese economy doubles itself. Really! If you calculate the coumpounded growth rate of 10% for 7 years or simply multiply 10% with itself for 7 times, you can find that it doubles. Chinese economic size is already much more than half of US, and this shows China will exceed US not more than 7 years even if US goes on to grow and does not declare bankruptcy.

When we come to GDP per capita question, Chinese population is around 1.5 billion adn US is around 300 millions. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=population&hl=tr&dl=tr

So when if China would have been at the same economic size with US, an average US citizen would have been 5 times richer than that of China. However, with this growth rate China will double US in mid 2020s and quadrable by early 2030s. By late 2030s an average Sam will consume eqaul to that of a Chinese guy.

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